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Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."

New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."