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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It frequently serves as a kind of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or just the greatest shock.

But the latest race is fundamentally different. The pool of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference winners fading and longtime strugglers improving in unison. Under an normal year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's up against five other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current isn't a normal season!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and experience, he bet on first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an early strong start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

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